This is not how October was supposed to play out for the oil market.
Crude oil futures fell Rs 87 to Rs 4,805 per barrel on Thursday as speculators offloaded bets amid a weak trend overseas. WTI is now more than $11 below its October 3 high of $76.90.
By around 1415 BST, the price of Brent Crude oil was 0.30% lower at $72.67 per barrel.
"The market has moved from expectations of massive supply scarcity in the fourth quarter to quite opposite expectations of a looming oversupply", said Eugen Weinberg, head of commodities research at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. This is the first time that monthly USA production levels surpassed 11 million b/d. "This is the highest correlation I've seen in quite some time".
Brent and US futures have dropped on growing concern over a possible slowdown in global growth as the U.S-China trade dispute remains unresolved, and is starting to hit emerging market economies in particular.
"Crude has been hit hard by the broader macro sell-off and concerns about trade wars and strong dollar hurting emerging market (EM) demand".
But there's another similarity between July 2016 and October 2018. The U.S. has agreed to let eight countries - including Japan, India and South Korea - keep buying Iranian oil after it reimposes sanctions this weekend to prevent a spike in prices, a senior administration official said.
Yet what really had oil give up the bullish ghosts were the comments by U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton that several countries may not be able to cut Iranian oil imports to zero right away.
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Adequate oil supply and an uncertain global economic outlook also dampened sentiment.
"A Saudi pledge to produce as much oil as possible, and the stock market rout, have sharply reduced concerns about the November 4 implementation of USA sanctions against Iran", said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.
"The $100 per barrel crude oil forecast was always rather unlikely".
Iran on Friday said that the waivers granted by the USA showed the Iranian crude was needed and could not be withdrawn from the market.
Schork thinks that the crude oil prices are now at a key level of support.
USA crude inventories data is due to be released on Wednesday. Brent was up 29 percent over the same period.
Brent crude futures had gained 83 cents, or 1.1%, to US$76.74 a barrel by 0746 GMT. Grisanti is watching for WTI to break above its 200-day moving average at $67.47 for a rebound. This is where the market bottomed in August, in June and back in the spring. The rise in USA oil production to an all-time high of 11.2 mln bpd also weighed on global prices of the fuel. I think the next couple of days will be crucial as to the future direction. "It's not all downhill from here", she said.